Weather Forecasting: A Brief Introduction

Weather forecasting is the use of science and technology to anticipate atmospheric conditions for a certain area and time. Weather forecasting has been attempted informally for millennia and professionally since the nineteenth century. Weather predictions are created by gathering quantitative data about the current condition of the atmosphere, land, and ocean, and then using meteorology to project how the atmosphere will change at a certain location.

History 

People have attempted to foretell the weather for millennia. The Babylonians predicted the weather using cloud patterns and astrology in about 650 BC. Aristotle described weather patterns in Meteorological around 350 BC. Later, Theophrastus produced the Work of Signs, a book on weather forecasting. Chinese weather prediction mythology dates back as least to 300 BC the same period that ancient Indian astronomers established weather-prediction systems.

Traditional weather forecasting systems depended on observable patterns of events, often known as pattern recognition. It was discovered, for example, that if the sunset was exceptionally crimson, the next day generally brought pleasant weather. Weather lore is the result of generations of cumulative experience. 

Modern Methods for Predicting Weather Forecasting

The current era of weather forecasting did not begin until the development of the electric telegraph in 1835. Prior to it, the quickest remote weather reports could travel was roughly 160 kilometers per day (100 miles per day), although it was more commonly 60-120 kilometers per day (40-75 miles per day) (whether by land or by sea). By the late 1840s, the telegraph had made it possible to receive reports of weather conditions from a vast region practically instantly, allowing forecasts to be constructed based on knowledge of meteorological conditions farther upwind.

Francis Beaufort, a Royal Navy commander, and his protégé Robert FitzRoy are credited with establishing forecasting as a science. Both were significant persons in British naval and administrative circles, and their work received scientific credibility, was recognized by the Royal Navy, and served as the foundation for all of today's weather forecasting expertise.

Numerical Method

Advances in knowledge of atmospheric physics did not lead to the development of modern numerical weather prediction until the twentieth century. After discovering notes and derivations he worked on as an ambulance driver during World War I, English physicist Lewis Fry Richardson published "Weather Prediction By Numerical Process" in 1922. He demonstrated how tiny terms in the prognostic fluid dynamics equations that regulate airflow may be ignored and a limited differencing technique in time and space designed to allow numerical prediction solutions to be discovered.

Richardson imagined a big auditorium filled with thousands of individuals doing the computations and passing them on to others. The sheer number of computations necessary, however, was too huge to be accomplished without the help of computers, and the scale of the grid and time steps produced implausible results in deeper systems. A numerical study eventually revealed that this was due to numerical instability.

Techniques for Predicting Weather 

Barometer

Since the late nineteenth century, measurements of barometric pressure and pressure tendency (the change in pressure over time) have been employed in forecasting. The greater the shift in pressure, especially if greater than 3.5 hPa (2.6 mmHg), the greater the difference in weather. If the pressure drops quickly, a low-pressure system is approaching, and rain is more likely. Rapid pressure increases are connected with better weather, such as clearing the sky.

Persistence 

Persistence, the simplest approach to weather forecasting, uses today's conditions to foretell tomorrow's conditions. When the weather is stable, such as during the summer season in the tropics, this can be a reliable method of predicting. This forecasting approach is heavily reliant on the availability of a stable weather pattern. As a result, with a changing weather pattern, this way of predicting becomes erroneous. It may be used for both short-term and long-term weather forecasts

Now Casting 

Now casting is the practice of predicting the weather for the next six hours. Smaller characteristics, such as individual showers and thunderstorms, as well as other elements too tiny to be resolved by a computer model, may be anticipated with fair accuracy in this time range. Given the most recent radar, satellite, and observational data, a person will be able to do a better analysis of the small-scale characteristics present and hence create a more accurate forecast for the next few hours. 

Use of Forecast Models 

Previously, the human forecaster was in charge of creating the whole weather forecast based on available observations.  In most cases, human participation is limited to selecting a model based on several characteristics such as model biases and performance.  Using a forecast model consensus as well as ensemble members from several models can assist minimize forecast error. Regardless matter how tiny the average error gets with any given system, huge mistakes within any specific piece of advice are still feasible on every given model run.

The model data must be interpreted by humans into weather predictions that are intelligible to the end user. Humans can utilize knowledge of local impacts that are too tiny for the model to resolve to contribute information to the forecast. While rising prediction model accuracy means that humans may no longer be required in the forecast process in the future, there is now a requirement for human intervention.

Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting is an open-access journal; all the articles are peer-reviewed by eminent people in the field. Journal strives to publish and get a worthy impact factor by quick visibility through its open-access guiding principle for world-class research work. Among the Climatology list journal Climatology & Weather Forecasting has a good reach to researchers and the scientific community.

Scope: climatic change, weather forecasting, analysis techniques, nowcasting, numerical weather prediction/forecasting, cloud-resolving models, parameterization, operational forecasting, coastal meteorology, mesoscale forecasting, numerical weather prediction/forecasting.

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