Climate Variability by Dagnew Yebeyan

Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting

For much research in climatology, hydrology, agriculture, and forestry, a comprehensive characterization of time series rainfall and temperature trends, variability, and the forecast is essential. In this study, rainfall and temperature trends and variations over the past 31 years in the Andracha district in southwest Ethiopia were quantified (1987-2017). Sen's slope estimate and the Mann-Kendall test were used to determine the trends and magnitude throughout the time series. 

On-time scales of seasons and longer, climates can be defined as the typical condition of the atmosphere as well as the subsurface land or water. Temperature and precipitation are two of the most crucial factors. He mentions in the Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting that after, Detecting the extent and severity of climate change and fluctuation is a typical task in the fields of hydrology and climate studies. The evaluation and relief efforts for floods and droughts are influenced by precipitation, which is a critical component of interactions between rainfall and runoff. The influence of temperature on evaporation, transpiration, and water demand has a significant impact on both the availability of water and management strategies. The industrial revolution that began in the middle of the 20th century resulted in the atmospheric release of greenhouse gases.

Historical Dataset

The National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia provided historical time series data of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures for the Andracha district for 31 years (1987-2017). These data were created using a combination of satellite data and climate datasets collected at the Gecha meteorological station. The choice of the study period was made based on the availability of climate data. In the research region, there are four different seasons:

  • December, January, and February (DJF) are the dry months
  • March, April, and May (MAM) are the brief rainy months
  • June, July, and August (JJA) are the primary rainy months
  • September, October, and November (SON) are the wet months

The primary rainy season results from the convergence of low-pressure systems and the Intertropical Convergence, while the brief rainy season is brought on by moist easterly and southeasterly winds from the Indian Ocean.

Seasonal and Yearly Variations in Temperature and Rainfall

With rain falling in virtually every season, the Andracha district can be regarded as one of Ethiopia's most precipitated regions. The JJA season is when it rains the most. The SON and MAM seasons bring a lot of rain to the region. This outcome is consistent with observations that, more consistently than other seasons, heavy rainfall levels typically occurred during the JJA seasons in the majority of the country. According to the classification given in the DJF season had a high coefficient of variation but a low coefficient of variation for yearly rainfall. The SON season, which is when crops began to bloom and/or ripen, showed variation as well.

The SON season, during which crops began to flower and/or ripen and require more water for maturation, also showed variation, proving that the season's rainfall is a very variable meteorological component. At crucial stages of crop growth, little disturbances like temperature changes can have a significant impact on productivity. Rainfall patterns and variability are widely cited elements in explaining many socioeconomic difficulties, such as food insecurity, in nations like Ethiopia, where their economy is primarily dependent on low-productivity rain-fed agriculture.

These years are associated with either the occurrence of droughts or Either the occurrence of drought or El Nino effects on the nation are linked to these years. On the other hand, the district's temperature variability was determined to be extremely low (CV10%). There were few outliers in both climate variables, since the highest difference between the mean and median values for rainfall and temperature, respectively, was less than 13.6 mm and 0.27°C.

Finally, they concluded that In this study quantified the variability and trend of the temperature and rainfall. The JJA season as well as the SON and MAM seasons have the most rainfall. The DJF season rainfall showed the highest variability. While rainfall showed a mix of positive and negative trends between 1987 and 2017, there were no discernible trends in temperature.

Journal Homepage 

Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting is an academic journal that aims to publish the most complete and reliable source of information on discoveries and current developments in the mode of original articles, review articles, case reports, short communications, etc.

Manuscript Submission link: https://www.longdom.org/submissions/climatology-weather-forecasting.html

Recent Publish Article

1. Analysis of rainfall variability and trends for better climate risk management in the major maize-producing districts in the northwestern part of Ethiopia by Dr. Wassen

2. Impact of Extreme Weather Events in India on Human Life - A Study by Dr. Shivaram 

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